Byker
2021-01-20 17:11:19 UTC
As predicted, this "new strain" bullshit is never going to end. There isn’t
any evidence for it, but every flu virus develops new strains. Remember,
that influenza was not eradicated, despite mass vaccination. "[I]t's up to
the public to do its part during ... a 'harsh shutdown' for the next month
in Ontario." This is never going to get less stupid than it is right now...
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Emergence of new strain could cause Ontario's COVID caseload to explode,
doctor warns
Chris Hall · CBC News
Jan 16, 2021
A top doctor on Ontario's COVID-19 scientific advisory committee says the
province could face up to 40,000 new cases each day by the end of February
if a virus variant that originated in the U.K. takes hold.
Dr. Peter Jüni told CBC's The House in an interview airing Saturday that
caseloads could double unless people take the current lockdown seriously and
stay at home.
"We could end up in this situation where we have, you know, [30,000] to
40,000 cases a day easily" because the variant is so much more infectious
than the original strain, he said.
Ontario imposed a second state of emergency this week and ordered the
shutdown. That decision came three weeks after Jüni's scientific advisory
group released a report that said earlier efforts to slow the pandemic's
spread were not working.
"You know, somebody told me that I actually didn't sound as calming as I
typically would be, that I was relatively alarming," Jüni told CBC News.
"To be really clear here, this is the single most scary thing I've seen as
an epidemiologist since the beginning of the pandemic. We need to be very
careful. And everybody — I just need to repeat that, I sound like a broken
record — everybody will need to help now. We can't be complacent here."
Jüni's warning is more pessimistic than earlier national modelling released
this week by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC), which suggests that
the number of daily COVID-19 cases could more than triple to 30,000 if
people increase their contacts during a time of widespread community
transmission.
That report also projects that if Canadians simply maintain their current
levels of contact with people outside their households, case counts will
still rise to roughly 13,000 a day from 7,900 now.
The new variant alarming Jüni isn't the only new strain now in Canada. This
week, British Columbia detected a single case of another mutation of the
virus that originated in South Africa. The province also has confirmed a
handful of cases of the new strain linked to the U.K.
B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix said those cases turned up through the
extensive contact-tracing and testing being conducted by public health
officials.
"So the good news is, in the case of the South African variant, that the
person in question had not travelled internationally and we believe has not
transmitted the variant themselves," Dix said in a separate interview with
The House.
"But obviously, we are concerned as to how the person developed and got the
virus. So we're doing extensive contact-tracing and trying to work that out.
It's a matter of concern … with people in hospital and, obviously, the
impact of COVID-19 on long-term care. Everything that might further
transmission is a source of concern while we're rolling out the early stages
of the immunization plan."
Given the limited supply of vaccines — and the expectation that there won't
be enough to vaccinate everyone who wants one until September — provinces
are considering extraordinary measures to both slow the spread of COVID-19
and to ration scarce hospital space.
B.C. is getting legal advice on whether it can close its borders to
Canadians from other provinces engaging in non-essential travel. A decision
is expected next week.
"We've got very large, long borders between B.C. and Alberta and ... the
Yukon, for example," Dix said when asked why the province is looking at
creating the kind of "bubble" the Atlantic provinces imposed last spring.
"So we're looking at those questions and looking at ways to improve
protection of British Columbia, and it goes both ways. Our message to
British Columbians is — no non-essential travel to other provinces as well."
B.C. so far hasn't suffered the same pressure on hospital capacity
experienced by Ontario and Quebec. Both of those provinces are now preparing
triage plans to determine which patients will be given priority access to
critical care beds as the pandemic causes hospitalizations to soar.
The emergence of variant strains is driving fears about hospital system
collapse. Dr. Jüni said the roughly 22 cases of the new variant reported in
Canada so far represent "the tip of the iceberg" and underscore the need to
plan for a sharp increase in cases — and for Canadians to respect the
stay-at-home order.
Jüni acknowledged that growing pandemic fatigue makes it hard for political
leaders. He said Premier Doug Ford and the province's health minister are
listening to scientific and medical advice.
"I wouldn't like to be an elected politician in the current situation. Let's
really face it. This is challenging for everybody. Nobody has been there
before," he said.
"What I see is ... since we started this in the middle of July, that we have
actually an excellent collaboration with our colleagues from the ministry
and also with elected decision makers and that this is working."
Now, he said, it's up to the public to do its part during what he conceded
will be a "harsh shutdown" for the next month in Ontario.
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thehouse/covid-coronavirus-uk-variant-ontario-juni-1.5872522
any evidence for it, but every flu virus develops new strains. Remember,
that influenza was not eradicated, despite mass vaccination. "[I]t's up to
the public to do its part during ... a 'harsh shutdown' for the next month
in Ontario." This is never going to get less stupid than it is right now...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Emergence of new strain could cause Ontario's COVID caseload to explode,
doctor warns
Chris Hall · CBC News
Jan 16, 2021
A top doctor on Ontario's COVID-19 scientific advisory committee says the
province could face up to 40,000 new cases each day by the end of February
if a virus variant that originated in the U.K. takes hold.
Dr. Peter Jüni told CBC's The House in an interview airing Saturday that
caseloads could double unless people take the current lockdown seriously and
stay at home.
"We could end up in this situation where we have, you know, [30,000] to
40,000 cases a day easily" because the variant is so much more infectious
than the original strain, he said.
Ontario imposed a second state of emergency this week and ordered the
shutdown. That decision came three weeks after Jüni's scientific advisory
group released a report that said earlier efforts to slow the pandemic's
spread were not working.
"You know, somebody told me that I actually didn't sound as calming as I
typically would be, that I was relatively alarming," Jüni told CBC News.
"To be really clear here, this is the single most scary thing I've seen as
an epidemiologist since the beginning of the pandemic. We need to be very
careful. And everybody — I just need to repeat that, I sound like a broken
record — everybody will need to help now. We can't be complacent here."
Jüni's warning is more pessimistic than earlier national modelling released
this week by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC), which suggests that
the number of daily COVID-19 cases could more than triple to 30,000 if
people increase their contacts during a time of widespread community
transmission.
That report also projects that if Canadians simply maintain their current
levels of contact with people outside their households, case counts will
still rise to roughly 13,000 a day from 7,900 now.
The new variant alarming Jüni isn't the only new strain now in Canada. This
week, British Columbia detected a single case of another mutation of the
virus that originated in South Africa. The province also has confirmed a
handful of cases of the new strain linked to the U.K.
B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix said those cases turned up through the
extensive contact-tracing and testing being conducted by public health
officials.
"So the good news is, in the case of the South African variant, that the
person in question had not travelled internationally and we believe has not
transmitted the variant themselves," Dix said in a separate interview with
The House.
"But obviously, we are concerned as to how the person developed and got the
virus. So we're doing extensive contact-tracing and trying to work that out.
It's a matter of concern … with people in hospital and, obviously, the
impact of COVID-19 on long-term care. Everything that might further
transmission is a source of concern while we're rolling out the early stages
of the immunization plan."
Given the limited supply of vaccines — and the expectation that there won't
be enough to vaccinate everyone who wants one until September — provinces
are considering extraordinary measures to both slow the spread of COVID-19
and to ration scarce hospital space.
B.C. is getting legal advice on whether it can close its borders to
Canadians from other provinces engaging in non-essential travel. A decision
is expected next week.
"We've got very large, long borders between B.C. and Alberta and ... the
Yukon, for example," Dix said when asked why the province is looking at
creating the kind of "bubble" the Atlantic provinces imposed last spring.
"So we're looking at those questions and looking at ways to improve
protection of British Columbia, and it goes both ways. Our message to
British Columbians is — no non-essential travel to other provinces as well."
B.C. so far hasn't suffered the same pressure on hospital capacity
experienced by Ontario and Quebec. Both of those provinces are now preparing
triage plans to determine which patients will be given priority access to
critical care beds as the pandemic causes hospitalizations to soar.
The emergence of variant strains is driving fears about hospital system
collapse. Dr. Jüni said the roughly 22 cases of the new variant reported in
Canada so far represent "the tip of the iceberg" and underscore the need to
plan for a sharp increase in cases — and for Canadians to respect the
stay-at-home order.
Jüni acknowledged that growing pandemic fatigue makes it hard for political
leaders. He said Premier Doug Ford and the province's health minister are
listening to scientific and medical advice.
"I wouldn't like to be an elected politician in the current situation. Let's
really face it. This is challenging for everybody. Nobody has been there
before," he said.
"What I see is ... since we started this in the middle of July, that we have
actually an excellent collaboration with our colleagues from the ministry
and also with elected decision makers and that this is working."
Now, he said, it's up to the public to do its part during what he conceded
will be a "harsh shutdown" for the next month in Ontario.
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thehouse/covid-coronavirus-uk-variant-ontario-juni-1.5872522